美国商务部周五公布,10月贸易逆差为434.7亿美元(市场预估为逆差435亿),9月修正後为逆差441.7亿美元(前值为逆差431.1亿);美国10月贸易逆差缩窄至2010年12月以来最小;美国10月对华贸易逆差为280.7亿美元,9月为逆差280.6亿美元; 美国10月出口减少0.8%,进口减少1.0%;美国10月从中国进口额达至378亿美元,创纪录高位
当前值 前次值
失业率(%) 8.6(11月) 9.0(10月修正值)
非农业就业岗位(万) 增加12(11月) 增加10(10月修正值)
平均时薪(%) -0.1(11月) +0.3(10月修正值)
消费者物价指数(CPI)(%) -0.1(10月) +0.3(9月)
不包括食品和能源CPI(%) +0.1(10月) +0.1(9月)
实质所得(%) +0.3(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
生产者物价指数(PPI)(%) -0.3(10月) +0.8(9月)
不包括食品和能源PPI(%) 持平(10月) +0.2(9月)
国内生产总值(GDP)(%) +2.0 +1.3
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
GDP平减指数(%) +2.5 +2.6
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
零售销售(%) +0.5(10月) +1.1(9月修正值)
国际贸易收支(亿美元) 逆差434.7(10月) 逆差431.1(9月)
雇佣成本(%) +0.7(第二季) +0.6(第一季)
工业生产(%) +0.7(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
产能利用率(%) 77.8(10月) 77.3(9月修正值)
初请失业金人数(万人) 38.1 40.4
(12月3日当周) (11月26日当周修正值)
联邦预算(亿美元) 赤字984.7(10月) 赤字645.7(9月)
领先指标(%) +0.9(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人所得(%) +0.4(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人消费支出(PCE)物价(%) -0.1(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
消费者信贷(亿美元) 增加76.5(10月) 增加68.8(9月修正值)
企业库存(%) 持平(9月) +0.4(8月修正值)
建筑支出(%) +0.8(10月) +0.2(9月)
消费者信心 56.0(11月) 40.9(10月修正值)
房屋开工(万户) 62.8(10月) 63(9月修正值)
建筑许可(万户) 65.3(10月) 58.9(9月修正值)
成屋销售(万户) 497(10月) 490(9月修正值)
新屋销售(万户) 30.7(10月) 30.3(9月修正值)
工厂订单(%) -0.4(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
耐久财(耐用品)订单(%) -0.5(10月修正值) -1.4(9月修正值)
供应管理协会非制造业指数 52.0(11月) 52.9(10月)
供应管理协会制造业指数 52.7(11月) 50.8(10月)
趸售(批发)库存(%) +1.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
进口物价(%) -0.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
出口物价(%) -2.1(10月) +0.4%(9月修正值)
单位劳工成本(%) -2.5 +2.8
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
非农业生产率(%) +2.3 -0.1
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
经常账(亿美元) 赤字1,180 赤字1,195.9
(第二季初值) (第一季修正值)
2011年12月9日星期五
中國政府 CPI & PPI 數據
11月CPI按年升4.2%；按月下跌0.2%。其中，食品按年升8.8%；非食品按年升2.2%。1至11月CP1按年升5.5%。
11月PPI同比升2.7%；按月並出現0.7%跌幅。1至11月PPI同比升6.4%
11月PPI同比升2.7%；按月並出現0.7%跌幅。1至11月PPI同比升6.4%
統計局數據
統計局公告，1-11月，全國房地產開發投資55,483億元人民幣(下同)，同比增長29.9%。11月增長20.1%。住宅投資39,857億元，增長32.8%。
1-11月，全國商品房銷售面積89,594萬平方米，增長8.5%。其中，11月下降1.7%。住宅銷售面積79,639萬平方米，增長7.5%。
1-11月，全國商品房銷售額49,047億元，增長16.0%。其中，11月下降1.2%。房地產開發企業本年資金來源75,208億元，增長19.0%。
另外，11月份，全國房地產開發景氣指數為99.87。
1-11月份，固定資產投資269,452億元人民幣(下同)，同比增長24.5%，增速較1-10月回落0.4個百分點。11月固定資產投資同比增長21.2%。從環比看，11月份固定資產投資下降0.19%。
11月份，規模以上工業增加值同比實際增長12.4%，比10月份回落0.8個百分點。1-11月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長14.0%，比1-10月份回落0.1個百分點。從環比看，11月份，規模以上工業增加值增長0.91%。
11月份，工業企業產品銷售率為97.5%，比上年同月下降0.2個百分點。工業企業實現出口交貨值8836億元，同比名義增長10.1%。
11月份，社會消費品零售總額16,129億元人民幣(下同)，同比名義增長17.3%。從環比看，11月份社會消費品零售總額增長1.27%。
11月份，城鎮消費品零售額13,969億元，同比增長17.3%；鄉村消費品零售額2,160億元，增長17.2%。
1-11月，全國商品房銷售面積89,594萬平方米，增長8.5%。其中，11月下降1.7%。住宅銷售面積79,639萬平方米，增長7.5%。
1-11月，全國商品房銷售額49,047億元，增長16.0%。其中，11月下降1.2%。房地產開發企業本年資金來源75,208億元，增長19.0%。
另外，11月份，全國房地產開發景氣指數為99.87。
1-11月份，固定資產投資269,452億元人民幣(下同)，同比增長24.5%，增速較1-10月回落0.4個百分點。11月固定資產投資同比增長21.2%。從環比看，11月份固定資產投資下降0.19%。
11月份，規模以上工業增加值同比實際增長12.4%，比10月份回落0.8個百分點。1-11月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長14.0%，比1-10月份回落0.1個百分點。從環比看，11月份，規模以上工業增加值增長0.91%。
11月份，工業企業產品銷售率為97.5%，比上年同月下降0.2個百分點。工業企業實現出口交貨值8836億元，同比名義增長10.1%。
11月份，社會消費品零售總額16,129億元人民幣(下同)，同比名義增長17.3%。從環比看，11月份社會消費品零售總額增長1.27%。
11月份，城鎮消費品零售額13,969億元，同比增長17.3%；鄉村消費品零售額2,160億元，增長17.2%。
ECB新闻发布会-新聞報告
其正常的經濟和貨幣分析的基礎上，理事會決定降低25個基點，歐洲央行的關鍵利率，於 2011年11月3日的25個基點下降。通脹可能停留數個月到2％以上，前下降到2％以下。加劇了金融市場的緊張局勢繼續影響歐元區經濟活動前景仍然受到高度的不確定性和大幅下滑的風險。在這樣的環境中，在歐元區的成本，工資和價格的壓力應該保持謙虛，在政策相關的地平線。與此同時，貨幣擴張的基本步伐仍然溫和。總之，它是必不可少的貨幣政策，保持物價穩定的中期，從而確保公司符合我們的目的是保持通脹率低於歐元區通脹預期的錨定，但接近2％的中期。這種錨定貨幣政策作出自己的貢獻，對支持經濟增長和創造就業機會，在歐元區的先決條件。
在繼續努力，以支持歐元區銀行的流動資金狀況，並協調於 2011年11月30日央行提供流動性的全球金融體系的行動，理事會今天還決定採取進一步的非標準措施。這些措施應確保加強銀行業獲得流動性和促進歐元區貨幣市場的運作。他們預計到家庭和非金融企業提供信貸支持。在這方面，理事會決定：
首先，進行 36個月的成熟和選擇提前還貸，一年後兩個較長期再融資操作（LTROs）。為固定利率全額分配招標程序的行動將會繼續進行。在這些行動中率將被固定在生活的各個操作的主要再融資操作的平均增長率。各自運作成熟時，將支付利息。將配發的第一個操作於 2011年12月21日，並於 2011年10月6日宣布，將取代12個月的LTRO。
第二，增加抵押品，通過減少對某些資產支持證券（ABS）的評級門檻。此外的ABS已經對歐元體系的運作的資格，評級至少是“單 A”隨後發行的歐元體系在統一的信貸規模，並在任何時候都，及相關資產，其中有一個第二個最好的ABS，包括住宅按揭貸款小型和中小型企業的貸款，將使用歐元體系信貸業務的抵押品資格。此外，各國央行將允許的，作為一個臨時解決方案，接受作為抵押品的額外的不良信貸債權（即銀行貸款），滿足特定資格。在接受此類信貸索賠而引起的責任將全部由中央國家授權其使用的銀行。這些措施將已出版有關的法律行為，盡快生效。
第三，降低準備金率，這是目前的2％，至1％。這將釋放的擔保和支持貨幣市場活動。適用於歐洲央行的主要再融資操作和銀行的方式是使用此選項，全額分配政策的結果，準備金要求的系統是不需要到相同的程度，正常情況下，引導貨幣市場的條件。這項措施將維修期，2012年1月18日開始生效。
第四，要暫時停止，維修期間，於 2011年12月14日起，每個維修期的最後一天進行的微調操作。這是一項技術性措施，以支持貨幣市場活動。
現在讓我更詳細的解釋我們的評估，經濟分析開始。在歐元區的實際國內生產總值在2011年第三季度季度增長了0.2％，與上一季度持平。從調查數據的證據表明，較弱的經濟活動在今年第四季度。一些因素似乎是抑制歐元區的潛在增長勢頭。他們包括：在全球需求增長的步伐和整體融資條件和信心，在歐元區主權債務市場的持續緊張，以及在金融和非金融部門的資產負債表調整的過程中造成的不利影響放緩。與此同時，我們預計歐元區經濟活動的恢復，儘管非常緩慢，在明年的過程中，彈性的全球需求，非常低的短期利率和所採取的所有措施，支持金融運作支持部門。
這項評估也反映在2011年12月歐元體系工作人員宏觀經濟預測歐元區，這預見範圍之間在2011年的1.5％和1.7％年度的實際國內生產總值增長 -0.4％和1.0％之間，2012年和0.3％之間在2013年的2.3％。 2011年9月歐洲央行工作人員的宏觀經濟預測相比，有一個 2011年的實際國內生產總值增長的預測範圍內的一個顯著的向下修正為 2012年的範圍縮小。這些修訂主要是反映了國內需求疲軟的信心和融資條件惡化，有關主權債務危機，以及國外需求向下修正的高度不確定性所引起的影響。
在理事會的評估，大幅下滑的風險，歐元區經濟前景存在很高的不確定性的環境中。下行風險，特別是涉及到一個在歐元區金融市場和其潛在的蔓延到歐元區實體經濟的緊張局勢進一步激化。下行風險，還涉及到全球經濟，這可能弱於預期，以及保護主義的壓力和全球不平衡的無序調整的可能性。
關於價格的發展，歐元區年度HICP通脹率是11月份的3.0％，根據歐盟統計局的估計，從兩個前幾個月持平。通貨膨脹率已經處於較高水平，自去年年底以來，主要由較高的能源和其他商品價格驅動。展望未來，他們很可能停留在2％以上，為幾個月來，在下降到2％以下，。這種模式反映了預期，全球疲軟，歐元區的增長和環境，相關的成本，工資和價格壓力，在歐元區也應該保持謙虛。
這種評估也反映在2011年12月歐元體系工作人員宏觀經濟預測歐元區 2011年HICP通脹預計在2.6％和2.8％之間的範圍介於 1.5％和2.5％，為 2012年0.8％和2.2％之間於 2013年。與 2011年9月歐洲央行工作人員的宏觀經濟預測，預測範圍為 2011年和2012年有輕微向上修訂。這會導致以歐元計的高油價上漲的影響，以及更高的貢獻從間接稅。這些因素上升的影響，預計更多比補償下調利潤率和工資增長的相關活動的向下修正。
理事會繼續認為價格發展的中期前景的風險大致平衡。在上升，主要風險涉及在間接稅和管理價格的進一步上漲，由於在未來幾年鞏固財政的需要。主要的下行風險與弱於預期歐元區的增長和全球的影響。
談到貨幣分析，M3的年增長率下降到2011年10月的2.6％後，9月份的3.0％。每年向私營部門提供貸款的增長率，貸款銷售和證券化調整，增加至10月份的3.0％，比9月份的2.7％。在過去的兩個月中，為 10月的貨幣數據反映在金融市場高度的不確定性。
在對口方面，對非金融企業和居民戶貸款的貸款年均增長率，貸款銷售和證券化的調整，大致維持不變，十月份分別為 2.3％和2.5％。未經調整的增長率均較低，由於在10月份大幅度的證券化活動。總體而言，貸款的數字不建議，提高金融市場的緊張局勢有顯著影響至十月期間的信貸供應。然而，由於信貸供給的影響可以表現自己與滯後，密切關注信貸的發展在今後一段時期內是必要的。
採取適當的中期來看，通過短期的波動，整體，貨幣擴張的基本步伐仍然溫和。
銀行資產負債表的穩健將是一個關鍵因素在減少潛在的負反饋迴路與金融市場的緊張影響，從而促進適當的規定，隨著時間的推移，經濟的信貸。 10月26日的歐洲理事會的協議，以進行增加銀行的資本狀況在2012年6月底的核心層 1至9％，提高了歐元區銀行業的的中期的應變能力。在這方面，重要的是，國家監管，確保銀行的資本重組計劃的實施不會導致在發展，不利於歐元區經濟活動的融資。
綜上所述，通貨膨脹率可能停留數個月到2％以上，前下降到2％以下。加強金融市場的緊張局勢繼續影響歐元區經濟活動前景仍然受到高度的不確定性和大幅下滑的風險。歐元區在這樣一個環境，價格，成本和工資壓力應該保持謙虛，在政策相關的地平線。從貨幣分析與信號的交叉檢查證實了這幅畫，與貨幣剩餘的適度擴張的基礎步伐。
至於財政政策，所有歐元區各國政府迫切需要盡最大努力支持歐元區作為一個整體的財政可持續性。新的財政結構緊湊，包括重述了與財政，歐元區各國政府已作出承諾的財政規則的基本，是為恢復金融市場的正常運作的最重要的前提。政策制定者需要糾正過度的赤字，並通過指定和實施必要的調整措施，在未來數年內平衡預算。這將在健全的政策行動支持，公眾的信心，從而加強整體經濟景氣。
為了配合財政整頓，理事會一再呼籲大膽和雄心勃勃的結構性改革。手在手，鞏固財政和結構性改革將堅定信心，增長前景和創造就業機會。關鍵的改革，應立即進行幫助歐元區國家提高競爭力，提高其經濟的靈活性，並增強其長期增長潛力。勞工市場改革應著眼於消除僵化和提高工資靈活性。產品市場改革應著眼於全面開放市場競爭的加劇。
Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to lower the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, following the 25 basis point decrease on 3 November 2011. Inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. The intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. Overall, it is essential for monetary policy to maintain price stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area.
In its continued efforts to support the liquidity situation of euro area banks, and following the coordinated central bank action on 30 November 2011 to provide liquidity to the global financial system, the Governing Council today also decided to adopt further non-standard measures. These measures should ensure enhanced access of the banking sector to liquidity and facilitate the functioning of the euro area money market. They are expected to support the provision of credit to households and non-financial corporations. In this context, the Governing Council decided:
First, to conduct two longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) with a maturity of 36 months and the option of early repayment after one year. The operations will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. The rate in these operations will be fixed at the average rate of the main refinancing operations over the life of the respective operation. Interest will be paid when the respective operation matures. The first operation will be allotted on 21 December 2011 and will replace the 12-month LTRO announced on 6 October 2011.
Second, to increase collateral availability by reducing the rating threshold for certain asset-backed securities (ABS). In addition to the ABS that are already eligible for Eurosystem operations, ABS having a second best rating of at least “single A” in the Eurosystem harmonised credit scale at issuance, and at all times subsequently, and the underlying assets of which comprise residential mortgages and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, will be eligible for use as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations. Moreover, national central banks will be allowed, as a temporary solution, to accept as collateral additional performing credit claims (namely bank loans) that satisfy specific eligibility criteria. The responsibility entailed in the acceptance of such credit claims will be borne by the national central bank authorising their use. These measures will take effect as soon as the relevant legal acts have been published.
Third, to reduce the reserve ratio, which is currently 2%, to 1%. This will free up collateral and support money market activity. As a consequence of the full allotment policy applied in the ECB’s main refinancing operations and the way banks are using this option, the system of reserve requirements is not needed to the same extent as under normal circumstances to steer money market conditions. This measure will take effect as of the maintenance period starting on 18 January 2012.
Fourth, to discontinue for the time being, as of the maintenance period starting on 14 December 2011, the fine-tuning operations carried out on the last day of each maintenance period. This is a technical measure to support money market activity.
A detailed press release will be published at 3.30 p.m. today on the ECB’s website. As stated on previous occasions, all the non-standard monetary policy measures are, by construction, temporary in nature.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP in the euro area grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2011, unchanged from the previous quarter. Evidence from survey data points to weaker economic activity in the fourth quarter of this year. A number of factors seem to be dampening the underlying growth momentum in the euro area. They include a moderation in the pace of global demand growth and unfavourable effects on overall financing conditions and on confidence resulting from ongoing tensions in euro area sovereign debt markets, as well as the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. At the same time, we expect euro area economic activity to recover, albeit very gradually, in the course of next year, supported by resilient global demand, very low short-term interest rates and all the measures taken to support the functioning of the financial sector.
This assessment is also reflected in the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between 1.5% and 1.7% in 2011, between -0.4% and 1.0% in 2012 and between 0.3% and 2.3% in 2013. Compared with the September 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, there is a narrowing of the range of the real GDP growth projection for 2011 and a significant downward revision of the range for 2012. These revisions mainly reflect the impact on domestic demand of weaker confidence and worsening financing conditions, stemming from the heightened uncertainty related to the sovereign debt crisis, as well as downward revisions of foreign demand.
In the Governing Council’s assessment, substantial downside risks to the economic outlook for the euro area exist in an environment of high uncertainty. Downside risks notably relate to a further intensification of the tensions in euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to the global economy, which may be weaker than expected, as well as to protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances.
With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 3.0% in November, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the two previous months. Inflation rates have been at elevated levels since the end of last year, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. Looking ahead, they are likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. This pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weaker growth in the euro area and globally, underlying cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should also remain modest.
This assessment is also reflected in the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.6% and 2.8% for 2011, between 1.5% and 2.5% for 2012 and between 0.8% and 2.2% for 2013. Compared with the September 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the projection ranges for 2011 and 2012 have been revised slightly upwards. This results from the upward impact of higher oil prices in euro terms, as well as a higher contribution from indirect taxes. The upward impact of these factors is expected to more than compensate the downward adjustments to profit margins and wage growth that are related to the downward revision of activity.
The Governing Council continues to view the risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments as broadly balanced. On the upside, the main risks relate to further increases in indirect taxes and administered prices, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally.
Turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of M3 decreased to 2.6% in October 2011, after 3.0% in September. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector, adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, increased to 3.0% in October, compared with 2.7% in September. As in the previous two months, the monetary data for October reflect the heightened uncertainty in financial markets.
On the counterpart side, the annual growth rates of loans to non-financial corporations and loans to households, adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, remained broadly unchanged in October, at 2.3% and 2.5% respectively. The unadjusted growth rates were lower, owing to substantial securitisation activities in October. Overall, the figures on lending do not suggest that the heightened financial market tensions have significantly affected the supply of credit in the period to October. However, given that credit supply effects can manifest themselves with lags, close scrutiny of credit developments is warranted in the period ahead.
Taking the appropriate medium-term perspective and looking through short-term volatility, overall, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate.
The soundness of bank balance sheets will be a key factor in reducing potential negative feedback loop effects related to tensions in financial markets, thereby facilitating an appropriate provision of credit to the economy over time. The agreement of the European Council of 26 October to proceed with the increase in the capital position of banks to 9% of core Tier 1 by the end of June 2012 should improve the euro area banking sector’s resilience over the medium term. In this respect, it is essential that national supervisors ensure that the implementation of banks’ recapitalisation plans does not result in developments that are detrimental to the financing of economic activity in the euro area.
To sum up, inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. Intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture, with the underlying pace of monetary expansion remaining moderate.
Turning to fiscal policies, all euro area governments urgently need to do their utmost to support fiscal sustainability in the euro area as a whole. A new fiscal compact, comprising a fundamental restatement of the fiscal rules together with the fiscal commitments that euro area governments have made, is the most important precondition for restoring the normal functioning of financial markets. Policy-makers need to correct excessive deficits and move to balanced budgets in the coming years by specifying and implementing the necessary adjustment measures. This will support public confidence in the soundness of policy actions and thus strengthen overall economic sentiment.
To accompany fiscal consolidation, the Governing Council has repeatedly called for bold and ambitious structural reforms. Going hand in hand, fiscal consolidation and structural reforms would strengthen confidence, growth prospects and job creation. Key reforms should be immediately carried out to help the euro area countries to improve competitiveness, increase the flexibility of their economies and enhance their longer-term growth potential. Labour market reforms should focus on removing rigidities and enhancing wage flexibility. Product market reforms should focus on fully opening up markets to increased competition.
在繼續努力，以支持歐元區銀行的流動資金狀況，並協調於 2011年11月30日央行提供流動性的全球金融體系的行動，理事會今天還決定採取進一步的非標準措施。這些措施應確保加強銀行業獲得流動性和促進歐元區貨幣市場的運作。他們預計到家庭和非金融企業提供信貸支持。在這方面，理事會決定：
首先，進行 36個月的成熟和選擇提前還貸，一年後兩個較長期再融資操作（LTROs）。為固定利率全額分配招標程序的行動將會繼續進行。在這些行動中率將被固定在生活的各個操作的主要再融資操作的平均增長率。各自運作成熟時，將支付利息。將配發的第一個操作於 2011年12月21日，並於 2011年10月6日宣布，將取代12個月的LTRO。
第二，增加抵押品，通過減少對某些資產支持證券（ABS）的評級門檻。此外的ABS已經對歐元體系的運作的資格，評級至少是“單 A”隨後發行的歐元體系在統一的信貸規模，並在任何時候都，及相關資產，其中有一個第二個最好的ABS，包括住宅按揭貸款小型和中小型企業的貸款，將使用歐元體系信貸業務的抵押品資格。此外，各國央行將允許的，作為一個臨時解決方案，接受作為抵押品的額外的不良信貸債權（即銀行貸款），滿足特定資格。在接受此類信貸索賠而引起的責任將全部由中央國家授權其使用的銀行。這些措施將已出版有關的法律行為，盡快生效。
第三，降低準備金率，這是目前的2％，至1％。這將釋放的擔保和支持貨幣市場活動。適用於歐洲央行的主要再融資操作和銀行的方式是使用此選項，全額分配政策的結果，準備金要求的系統是不需要到相同的程度，正常情況下，引導貨幣市場的條件。這項措施將維修期，2012年1月18日開始生效。
第四，要暫時停止，維修期間，於 2011年12月14日起，每個維修期的最後一天進行的微調操作。這是一項技術性措施，以支持貨幣市場活動。
現在讓我更詳細的解釋我們的評估，經濟分析開始。在歐元區的實際國內生產總值在2011年第三季度季度增長了0.2％，與上一季度持平。從調查數據的證據表明，較弱的經濟活動在今年第四季度。一些因素似乎是抑制歐元區的潛在增長勢頭。他們包括：在全球需求增長的步伐和整體融資條件和信心，在歐元區主權債務市場的持續緊張，以及在金融和非金融部門的資產負債表調整的過程中造成的不利影響放緩。與此同時，我們預計歐元區經濟活動的恢復，儘管非常緩慢，在明年的過程中，彈性的全球需求，非常低的短期利率和所採取的所有措施，支持金融運作支持部門。
這項評估也反映在2011年12月歐元體系工作人員宏觀經濟預測歐元區，這預見範圍之間在2011年的1.5％和1.7％年度的實際國內生產總值增長 -0.4％和1.0％之間，2012年和0.3％之間在2013年的2.3％。 2011年9月歐洲央行工作人員的宏觀經濟預測相比，有一個 2011年的實際國內生產總值增長的預測範圍內的一個顯著的向下修正為 2012年的範圍縮小。這些修訂主要是反映了國內需求疲軟的信心和融資條件惡化，有關主權債務危機，以及國外需求向下修正的高度不確定性所引起的影響。
在理事會的評估，大幅下滑的風險，歐元區經濟前景存在很高的不確定性的環境中。下行風險，特別是涉及到一個在歐元區金融市場和其潛在的蔓延到歐元區實體經濟的緊張局勢進一步激化。下行風險，還涉及到全球經濟，這可能弱於預期，以及保護主義的壓力和全球不平衡的無序調整的可能性。
關於價格的發展，歐元區年度HICP通脹率是11月份的3.0％，根據歐盟統計局的估計，從兩個前幾個月持平。通貨膨脹率已經處於較高水平，自去年年底以來，主要由較高的能源和其他商品價格驅動。展望未來，他們很可能停留在2％以上，為幾個月來，在下降到2％以下，。這種模式反映了預期，全球疲軟，歐元區的增長和環境，相關的成本，工資和價格壓力，在歐元區也應該保持謙虛。
這種評估也反映在2011年12月歐元體系工作人員宏觀經濟預測歐元區 2011年HICP通脹預計在2.6％和2.8％之間的範圍介於 1.5％和2.5％，為 2012年0.8％和2.2％之間於 2013年。與 2011年9月歐洲央行工作人員的宏觀經濟預測，預測範圍為 2011年和2012年有輕微向上修訂。這會導致以歐元計的高油價上漲的影響，以及更高的貢獻從間接稅。這些因素上升的影響，預計更多比補償下調利潤率和工資增長的相關活動的向下修正。
理事會繼續認為價格發展的中期前景的風險大致平衡。在上升，主要風險涉及在間接稅和管理價格的進一步上漲，由於在未來幾年鞏固財政的需要。主要的下行風險與弱於預期歐元區的增長和全球的影響。
談到貨幣分析，M3的年增長率下降到2011年10月的2.6％後，9月份的3.0％。每年向私營部門提供貸款的增長率，貸款銷售和證券化調整，增加至10月份的3.0％，比9月份的2.7％。在過去的兩個月中，為 10月的貨幣數據反映在金融市場高度的不確定性。
在對口方面，對非金融企業和居民戶貸款的貸款年均增長率，貸款銷售和證券化的調整，大致維持不變，十月份分別為 2.3％和2.5％。未經調整的增長率均較低，由於在10月份大幅度的證券化活動。總體而言，貸款的數字不建議，提高金融市場的緊張局勢有顯著影響至十月期間的信貸供應。然而，由於信貸供給的影響可以表現自己與滯後，密切關注信貸的發展在今後一段時期內是必要的。
採取適當的中期來看，通過短期的波動，整體，貨幣擴張的基本步伐仍然溫和。
銀行資產負債表的穩健將是一個關鍵因素在減少潛在的負反饋迴路與金融市場的緊張影響，從而促進適當的規定，隨著時間的推移，經濟的信貸。 10月26日的歐洲理事會的協議，以進行增加銀行的資本狀況在2012年6月底的核心層 1至9％，提高了歐元區銀行業的的中期的應變能力。在這方面，重要的是，國家監管，確保銀行的資本重組計劃的實施不會導致在發展，不利於歐元區經濟活動的融資。
綜上所述，通貨膨脹率可能停留數個月到2％以上，前下降到2％以下。加強金融市場的緊張局勢繼續影響歐元區經濟活動前景仍然受到高度的不確定性和大幅下滑的風險。歐元區在這樣一個環境，價格，成本和工資壓力應該保持謙虛，在政策相關的地平線。從貨幣分析與信號的交叉檢查證實了這幅畫，與貨幣剩餘的適度擴張的基礎步伐。
至於財政政策，所有歐元區各國政府迫切需要盡最大努力支持歐元區作為一個整體的財政可持續性。新的財政結構緊湊，包括重述了與財政，歐元區各國政府已作出承諾的財政規則的基本，是為恢復金融市場的正常運作的最重要的前提。政策制定者需要糾正過度的赤字，並通過指定和實施必要的調整措施，在未來數年內平衡預算。這將在健全的政策行動支持，公眾的信心，從而加強整體經濟景氣。
為了配合財政整頓，理事會一再呼籲大膽和雄心勃勃的結構性改革。手在手，鞏固財政和結構性改革將堅定信心，增長前景和創造就業機會。關鍵的改革，應立即進行幫助歐元區國家提高競爭力，提高其經濟的靈活性，並增強其長期增長潛力。勞工市場改革應著眼於消除僵化和提高工資靈活性。產品市場改革應著眼於全面開放市場競爭的加劇。
Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to lower the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, following the 25 basis point decrease on 3 November 2011. Inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. The intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. Overall, it is essential for monetary policy to maintain price stability over the medium term, thereby ensuring a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area.
In its continued efforts to support the liquidity situation of euro area banks, and following the coordinated central bank action on 30 November 2011 to provide liquidity to the global financial system, the Governing Council today also decided to adopt further non-standard measures. These measures should ensure enhanced access of the banking sector to liquidity and facilitate the functioning of the euro area money market. They are expected to support the provision of credit to households and non-financial corporations. In this context, the Governing Council decided:
First, to conduct two longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) with a maturity of 36 months and the option of early repayment after one year. The operations will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. The rate in these operations will be fixed at the average rate of the main refinancing operations over the life of the respective operation. Interest will be paid when the respective operation matures. The first operation will be allotted on 21 December 2011 and will replace the 12-month LTRO announced on 6 October 2011.
Second, to increase collateral availability by reducing the rating threshold for certain asset-backed securities (ABS). In addition to the ABS that are already eligible for Eurosystem operations, ABS having a second best rating of at least “single A” in the Eurosystem harmonised credit scale at issuance, and at all times subsequently, and the underlying assets of which comprise residential mortgages and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, will be eligible for use as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations. Moreover, national central banks will be allowed, as a temporary solution, to accept as collateral additional performing credit claims (namely bank loans) that satisfy specific eligibility criteria. The responsibility entailed in the acceptance of such credit claims will be borne by the national central bank authorising their use. These measures will take effect as soon as the relevant legal acts have been published.
Third, to reduce the reserve ratio, which is currently 2%, to 1%. This will free up collateral and support money market activity. As a consequence of the full allotment policy applied in the ECB’s main refinancing operations and the way banks are using this option, the system of reserve requirements is not needed to the same extent as under normal circumstances to steer money market conditions. This measure will take effect as of the maintenance period starting on 18 January 2012.
Fourth, to discontinue for the time being, as of the maintenance period starting on 14 December 2011, the fine-tuning operations carried out on the last day of each maintenance period. This is a technical measure to support money market activity.
A detailed press release will be published at 3.30 p.m. today on the ECB’s website. As stated on previous occasions, all the non-standard monetary policy measures are, by construction, temporary in nature.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP in the euro area grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2011, unchanged from the previous quarter. Evidence from survey data points to weaker economic activity in the fourth quarter of this year. A number of factors seem to be dampening the underlying growth momentum in the euro area. They include a moderation in the pace of global demand growth and unfavourable effects on overall financing conditions and on confidence resulting from ongoing tensions in euro area sovereign debt markets, as well as the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. At the same time, we expect euro area economic activity to recover, albeit very gradually, in the course of next year, supported by resilient global demand, very low short-term interest rates and all the measures taken to support the functioning of the financial sector.
This assessment is also reflected in the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between 1.5% and 1.7% in 2011, between -0.4% and 1.0% in 2012 and between 0.3% and 2.3% in 2013. Compared with the September 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, there is a narrowing of the range of the real GDP growth projection for 2011 and a significant downward revision of the range for 2012. These revisions mainly reflect the impact on domestic demand of weaker confidence and worsening financing conditions, stemming from the heightened uncertainty related to the sovereign debt crisis, as well as downward revisions of foreign demand.
In the Governing Council’s assessment, substantial downside risks to the economic outlook for the euro area exist in an environment of high uncertainty. Downside risks notably relate to a further intensification of the tensions in euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to the global economy, which may be weaker than expected, as well as to protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances.
With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 3.0% in November, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the two previous months. Inflation rates have been at elevated levels since the end of last year, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. Looking ahead, they are likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. This pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weaker growth in the euro area and globally, underlying cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should also remain modest.
This assessment is also reflected in the December 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.6% and 2.8% for 2011, between 1.5% and 2.5% for 2012 and between 0.8% and 2.2% for 2013. Compared with the September 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the projection ranges for 2011 and 2012 have been revised slightly upwards. This results from the upward impact of higher oil prices in euro terms, as well as a higher contribution from indirect taxes. The upward impact of these factors is expected to more than compensate the downward adjustments to profit margins and wage growth that are related to the downward revision of activity.
The Governing Council continues to view the risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments as broadly balanced. On the upside, the main risks relate to further increases in indirect taxes and administered prices, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally.
Turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of M3 decreased to 2.6% in October 2011, after 3.0% in September. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector, adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, increased to 3.0% in October, compared with 2.7% in September. As in the previous two months, the monetary data for October reflect the heightened uncertainty in financial markets.
On the counterpart side, the annual growth rates of loans to non-financial corporations and loans to households, adjusted for loan sales and securitisation, remained broadly unchanged in October, at 2.3% and 2.5% respectively. The unadjusted growth rates were lower, owing to substantial securitisation activities in October. Overall, the figures on lending do not suggest that the heightened financial market tensions have significantly affected the supply of credit in the period to October. However, given that credit supply effects can manifest themselves with lags, close scrutiny of credit developments is warranted in the period ahead.
Taking the appropriate medium-term perspective and looking through short-term volatility, overall, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate.
The soundness of bank balance sheets will be a key factor in reducing potential negative feedback loop effects related to tensions in financial markets, thereby facilitating an appropriate provision of credit to the economy over time. The agreement of the European Council of 26 October to proceed with the increase in the capital position of banks to 9% of core Tier 1 by the end of June 2012 should improve the euro area banking sector’s resilience over the medium term. In this respect, it is essential that national supervisors ensure that the implementation of banks’ recapitalisation plans does not result in developments that are detrimental to the financing of economic activity in the euro area.
To sum up, inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. Intensified financial market tensions are continuing to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture, with the underlying pace of monetary expansion remaining moderate.
Turning to fiscal policies, all euro area governments urgently need to do their utmost to support fiscal sustainability in the euro area as a whole. A new fiscal compact, comprising a fundamental restatement of the fiscal rules together with the fiscal commitments that euro area governments have made, is the most important precondition for restoring the normal functioning of financial markets. Policy-makers need to correct excessive deficits and move to balanced budgets in the coming years by specifying and implementing the necessary adjustment measures. This will support public confidence in the soundness of policy actions and thus strengthen overall economic sentiment.
To accompany fiscal consolidation, the Governing Council has repeatedly called for bold and ambitious structural reforms. Going hand in hand, fiscal consolidation and structural reforms would strengthen confidence, growth prospects and job creation. Key reforms should be immediately carried out to help the euro area countries to improve competitiveness, increase the flexibility of their economies and enhance their longer-term growth potential. Labour market reforms should focus on removing rigidities and enhancing wage flexibility. Product market reforms should focus on fully opening up markets to increased competition.
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)