美國國會參議院以67票贊成、32票反對的投票結果，通過一份總額約為1萬億美元的撥款議案，為聯邦政府在始於今年10月的本財政年度剩餘時間提供資金。議案16日已獲眾議院通過。白宮方面已表示，總統奧巴馬將很快簽署這份議案。
另外，參議院亦通過將薪俸稅減稅和長期失業者的救濟金政策延期2個月的議案，而非白宮此前希望延長1年的方案，表明兩黨在明年初將繼續圍繞這2項議題博弈。奧巴馬稱，減薪俸稅稅對工人階層非常重要，期待薪俸稅減稅可以在2012年延續。
在美國兩黨去年底通過的減稅妥協方案中，美國普通打工階層每月交納的薪俸稅率從6.2%降至4.2%，長期失業者的救濟金政策也被延長，但2項計劃都將在今年底到期。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111218101223
2011年12月18日星期日
惠譽確認法國AAA評級 評級展望負面
評級機構惠譽表示，確認法國「AAA」評級，但展望評級則調低至「負面」。惠譽指出，法國的多元化經濟令AAA評級得到支持，但歐債危機引發的政府債務風險，令前景評級被調低。
此外，惠譽亦將意大利、西班牙、比利時、愛爾蘭、斯洛文尼亞及塞浦路斯6個國家，列入負面觀察名單，意味評級可能會被下調，或調低一至兩級，預料明年1月底完成評級檢討。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111217114952
此外，惠譽亦將意大利、西班牙、比利時、愛爾蘭、斯洛文尼亞及塞浦路斯6個國家，列入負面觀察名單，意味評級可能會被下調，或調低一至兩級，預料明年1月底完成評級檢討。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111217114952
穆迪降比利時兩級至AA3 展望負面
評級機構穆迪公布，將比利時主權信貸評級連降兩級，由「AA1」降至「AA3」，展望評級為「負面」，原因是歐元區國家的融資風險或持續惡化，另外，歐元區國家普遍需要持續削債及限制財政開支，或增加該國的中期經濟增長風險，而比利時政府的資產負債水平偏高，以致銀行業存在不確定性。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111217110819
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111217110819
2011年12月17日星期六
惠譽維持法國最高評級
..評級機構惠譽維持法國AAA的最高主權信貸評級，但考慮將另外六個歐元區國家，包括意大利，西班牙，愛爾蘭，比利時，斯洛文尼亞及塞浦路斯的評級，下調一至兩級。
惠譽說，經過上星期的歐盟會議，仍未能在技術及政治上，找出全面解決歐債危機的方法。惠譽會在下月底完成對有關國家的評級檢討。另一間評級機構標準普爾同時宣佈，將葡萄牙六間銀行的信貸評級，降至垃圾級別。
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%83%A0%E8%AD%BD%E7%B6%AD%E6%8C%81%E6%B3%95%E5%9C%8B%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E8%A9%95%E7%B4%9A-182200243.html
..
惠譽說，經過上星期的歐盟會議，仍未能在技術及政治上，找出全面解決歐債危機的方法。惠譽會在下月底完成對有關國家的評級檢討。另一間評級機構標準普爾同時宣佈，將葡萄牙六間銀行的信貸評級，降至垃圾級別。
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%83%A0%E8%AD%BD%E7%B6%AD%E6%8C%81%E6%B3%95%E5%9C%8B%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E8%A9%95%E7%B4%9A-182200243.html
..
2011年12月16日星期五
欧洲央行行长德拉吉讲话-20111215
歐元，貨幣政策的財政緊湊的設計
演辭，歐洲央行行長德拉基，
路德維希艾哈德講座，
2011年12月15日，柏林
女士們，先生們，
我很榮幸能收到邀請提供今年的路德維希艾哈德講座教授漢斯蒂特邁爾。
當我在20世紀 90年代在意大利財政部工作，我蒂特邁爾和教授一起工作的許多機會。我清楚地記得在“馬斯特里赫特條約”以來的二十年的過程中，我們的許多交流。我非常感謝他作為顧問，我們的審計委員會與歐洲央行（ECB）保持密切聯繫。
讓我也表達我的感激之情的Ludwig - Erhard基金會的活動，支持“Soziale Marktwirtschaft”的原則，歐洲各地知名。
路德維希艾哈德在塑造德國戰後恢復遺留的延伸遠遠超出了他自己的國家，遠遠超出了他自己的時代。他的“社會市場經濟”的理念，是有遠見的。 ，甚至舉行有關央行行長珍惜意見，強調價格穩定的重要性：“模具soziale Marktwirtschaft IST ohne eine konsequente Politik DER Preisstabilität - 編者 denkbar。”我認為，今天，我們不能制定這個想法。
路德維希艾哈德還供奉了中央銀行的獨立性原則。當在20世紀 50年代初的德國中央銀行制度的獨立性尚未解決，他認為，作為經濟部長，政府不應該發出指示，向中央銀行。大家都知道，歐洲央行的法規繼承了這一重要原則，中央銀行的獨立性和價格穩定的可信的追求齊頭並進。
目前的情況下仍然要求深深的挑戰交織在許多國家的政治水平和超國家的歐洲領域的經濟，金融和財政問題，。
上週已採取了兩套重要的決定，這是今天我的發言重點。首先，我將詳細闡述了貨幣政策措施，歐洲央行上週四宣布，我們期望從他們那裡的動機。第二，我也想與大家分享上週的歐洲理事會首腦會議的決定，這帶來了一些非常重要的新的元素，我們的經濟和貨幣聯盟的一些看法。
歐元區貨幣政策的決策
為了解釋我們最近的貨幣政策措施，讓我記得，在歐元區經濟對銀行的特殊作用。工程主要是通過銀行信貸在歐元區的企業和家庭的流動。近年來，企業的外部融資約三季度來自該源。
這意味著任何銀行貸款的渠道減值，將有更強的後果比其他經濟體，企業的外部融資時主要是從企業債券市場在歐元區。
在歐元區的銀行最近受到壓力，既至於他們的資本基礎和其資助的條件。
計劃，以加強其資本基礎，是企圖以加強其在金融市場中的地位，但是這不是一個簡單的過程。基本上有三個銀行的選項，以追求提高其資本比率由歐洲銀行管理局的要求：他們可以提高其資本水平，出售資產或減少其向實體經濟提供信貸。
第一個選項是比第二個好很多，和第二個選項是遠遠比第三更好。但是，提高資本水平是昂貴的，在低迷的市場，面臨著來自股東的阻力。出售資產是不太可取，削減信貸向實體經濟更是雪上加霜。因此，公共當局應，以減輕對實體經濟和銀行的影響，應考慮限制股息及專案補償，以加強緩衝區。
銀行也面臨著在金融市場籌集較長期資金的問題。其資金的縮短導致在打開的那種，造成金融危機的資產負債表的期限錯配。與此同時，抵押物的短缺開始出現，尤其是中小型銀行在金融體系的某些環節。
除了識別在銀行業的這些特殊菌株，我們定期經濟和貨幣分析表明，加劇了金融市場的緊張局勢繼續抑制歐元區經濟活動前景仍然受到高度的不確定性和大幅下滑的風險。在這樣的環境中，在歐元區的成本，工資和價格的壓力應該保持謙虛，在政策相關的地平線。與此同時，貨幣擴張的基本步伐仍然疲弱。
在這種情況下，並忠實於我們的任務是保持中期價格穩定，歐洲央行理事會已經採取了一些深遠影響的決定。
理事會決定，以減少其關鍵利率25個基點至1％。在正常的金融市場條件下，降低利率政策是一個有力的手段控制通貨膨脹和需求的支持。降息的方式通過財務回報向下調整的長鏈。在該進程的結束，大範圍的證券的收益率下降，並促進基礎廣泛的寬鬆的貨幣政策。
在目前的條件下，這個過程會受到阻礙，使本身就是一個降息的影響減弱。銀行同業及其他潛在的更廣泛的經濟，限制了他們的貸款和預防的現金餘額為自我保險持有。
因此，理事會上週決定對三個其他措施，其中每個提供額外的支持，以實現必要的貨幣政策向實體經濟的衝動。
當前包應切實感受到，在金融部門和實體經濟在今後幾週和幾個月。當然，對由去槓桿化產生了濃厚的逆風。
我們建立了非常三年到期的長期再融資操作。這一期限是在歐洲央行的貨幣政策操作的新穎性。
央行提供信貸的延伸很長的到期，是為了給銀行不再地平線在其流動性規劃。它可以幫助他們避免重新平衡其資產和負債的到期日，經過一個較長期的貸款比例縮小。順便說一下，我們要絕對清楚地表明，在目前的條件下，系統性風險嚴重阻礙了經濟的運作，我們可以看到連接到中央銀行信貸規定的使用沒有恥辱：要使用我們的設施。
銀行將能夠進行再融資與歐元體系的長期貸款，從而保持其長期暴露到實體經濟。第一年後，銀行將不得不終止操作的選項。因此，他們可以靈活地適應不斷變化的流動性狀況和正常化的市場環境。
我們的第二項措施將允許銀行使用歐元體系的抵押品的貸款，從而解凍銀行資產的很大一部分。它還應提供銀行放棄削減信貸的經濟，並避免其資產負債表上其他資產的消防銷售激勵。
這些措施的目的是要確保美國家庭和企業 - 特別是小型和中小型企業 - 在當前形勢下的信貸將獲得盡可能有效。當然，我們必須仔細屏幕上的抵押品，以保護我們的資產負債表。
我們上週公佈的第三項措施是減少所需的儲備比例從 2％至1％。這項措施釋放了約 100億歐元銀行業的流動性。 ，這在需要的儲備減少，應與其他措施一起，幫助恢復貨幣市場的活動和貸款。
你會注意到我反复提到小型和中小型企業。提請你注意這些企業的理由是，他們是我們經濟的重要組成部分，佔約 70％，在歐元區的就業和所有企業的營業額的60％。我們認為，上週四推出的措施將提供本部門的支持，也間接支持急需的投資，經濟增長和就業。
一個穩定的經濟和貨幣聯盟的基礎
我現在我的注意力轉移到上週的歐洲理事會首腦會議。超過 12年，歐洲經濟和貨幣聯盟一直困擾國家預算的擔憂。在一個共同貨幣區，在正常情況下，個別國家的財政政策通常面對金融市場的壓力較小。正是基於此，一開始就在歐洲單一貨幣的穩定和增長公約“成立的目的是提供一個財政政策的控制機制的原因。
明年，歐元區作為一個整體將有一個政府主要預算赤字接近零。與此相比，在國內生產總值的5％左右預計在日本，英國和美國的主要赤字。
然而，實施的穩定和增長公約“還沒有足夠好。正如德國聯邦總理最近說，該條約已被打破過去 12年的60倍。因此，我們顯然有工作做，以防止再次發生這種情況。
這是由歐洲議會今年早些時候批准 - - 稱為六包的經濟和財政監督的新規則，必將加強實施細則。但是，儘管這些變化正在計劃，整個財政的凝聚力和歐元區的公信力被削弱。
現在，我們已經開始重新設計歐洲的三個方面的財政框架的過程中。
首先在於同有關國家，他們將建立一個健全的政策。我相信，他們現在在正確的軌道，他們是在堅決執行預算鞏固。不可避免的短期收縮可以減輕恢復信心。但在中期，可持續的增長可以達到只有進行深刻的結構性改革已拖延太久。
應對危機的第二大支柱，包括重新設計了在歐元區，我所謂的財政緊湊的財政治理。財政緊湊，是一個根本的規則，國家預算政策應該是主體，以獲得毋庸置疑的公信力重述。
上週的首腦會議上承諾，供奉在這些規則的主要立法。他們預見，每年的結構性赤字不得超過名義國內生產總值的0.5％。歐元區成員國將實施這樣的規則在本國的法律框架在憲法層面，因此，它有可能避免過度赤字，才出現的，而不是試圖控制他們後，他們已經出現。預防勝於治療。
規則也將預見偏差的情況下自動糾錯機制。此外，各國領導人同意上年度減少債務的數值基準，以降低債務水平。他們還同意，將自動適用於歐元區成員國的赤字為 3％的參考價值違反制裁。
歐洲法院可能會被要求確認在國家一級執行這些規則。
兩者合計，我相信，這些決定是可信強勁的歐元區公共財政的。
但是，恢復金融市場的信心，也需要投資者可以放心，政府債務將永遠償還和及時的服務。希臘將仍然是一個獨特的情況下，和一個可靠的穩定機制，防火牆，將在需要時受到適當的條件，可以激活。領導人明確同意評估，明年3月的防火牆是否足夠。其目的是解決金融的穩定，尤其是不同的主權債務市場之間傳染的風險威脅。
領導人決定部署在最早的時機，充分利用歐洲金融穩定基金（EFSF）。同時，他們一致認為，EFSF的繼任者，歐洲穩定機制，應該由2012年7月生效。
這是非常重要的EFSF設備齊全，並盡快投入使用。考慮到這一點的目標，上週四，理事會決定，歐洲央行隨時準備採取行動，其技術基礎設施和技術訣竅作為代理人進行市場運作的EFSF。
結論
最後，我想。歐洲理事會首腦會議的決定，連同歐洲議會最近批准的六塊，是一個明確的財政規則，在我們的貨幣聯盟的突破。
然而，危機尚未結束。現在重要的是不要失去勢頭，並迅速執行放回當然，歐元區經濟已採取的所有這些決定。
貨幣政策措施，由上週的歐洲央行理事會將支持歐元區經濟在向企業和家庭信貸流動。
路德維希艾哈德面臨的情況比我們今天所面臨的的困難得多。儘管如此，他仍然能夠通過富有挑戰性的目前看，努力構築未來，他從來沒有懷疑過會更加美好。歐洲決策者可能由他的風格中得到啟發：“書齋斯特羅姆 DER時代週報 können WIR zwar - 編者 lenken，ABER WIR werden unser希夫sicher steuern。
非常感謝您的關注。
The euro, monetary policy and the design of a fiscal compact
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Ludwig Erhard Lecture,
Berlin, 15 December 2011
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am honoured to have received the invitation from Professor Hans Tietmeyer to deliver this year’s Ludwig Erhard lecture.
When I was working at the Italian Treasury in the 1990s, Professor Tietmeyer and I had many opportunities to work together. I vividly remember many of our exchanges over the course of the two decades since the Maastricht Treaty. And I am very grateful that he remains in close contact with the European Central Bank (ECB) as adviser to our audit committee.
Let me also express my gratitude to the Ludwig-Erhard-Foundation whose activities in support of the principles of “Soziale Marktwirtschaft” are renowned across Europe.
Ludwig Erhard’s legacy in shaping Germany’s post-war recovery stretches far beyond his own country and far beyond his own times. His conception of the social market economy was visionary. And he even held cherished views about central bankers, stressing the importance of price stability: “Die soziale Marktwirtschaft ist ohne eine konsequente Politik der Preisstabilität nicht denkbar.” I think we cannot formulate this idea any better today.
Ludwig Erhard also helped to enshrine the principle of central bank independence. When in the early 1950s the independence of the German central bank system was not yet settled, he as minister of the economy argued that the government should not issue instructions to the central bank. You all know that the statutes of the ECB inherited this important principle and that central bank independence and the credible pursuit of price stability go hand in hand.
Current circumstances remain demanding, with economic, financial and fiscal issues deeply intertwined with challenges at the political level in many countries and in the supra-national European sphere.
Last week two sets of important decisions have been taken, which are going to be the focus of my remarks today. First, I will elaborate on the motivation for the monetary policy measures that the ECB announced last Thursday and what we expect from them. Second, I would also like to share with you some views on last week’s European Council summit’s decisions, which brought some very important new elements to our economic and monetary union.
Monetary policy decisions for the euro area
To explain our recent monetary policy measures, let me recall the particular role of banks in the euro area economy. The flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area works largely through banks. During recent years, about three quarters of firms’ external financing have come from that source.
This means that any impairment in the bank lending channel will have stronger consequences in the euro area than in other economies where firms’ external financing comes largely from corporate bond markets.
Banks in the euro area have recently come under pressure both as regards their capital bases and their funding conditions.
The plan to strengthen their capital bases is an attempt to reinforce their standing in financial markets, but this is not an easy process. There are essentially three options for banks to pursue to raise their capital ratios as demanded by the European Banking Authority: they can raise their capital levels, sell assets or reduce their provision of credit to the real economy.
The first option is much better than the second, and the second option is much better than the third. But raising capital levels is expensive in a depressed market and faces resistance from shareholders. Selling assets is less preferable and curtailing credit to the real economy is even worse. Therefore, public authorities ought to cushion the impact on the real economy and banks should consider restraining dividends and ad hoc compensation to strengthen buffers.
Banks are also facing problems in raising longer-term funding in financial markets. The resulting shortening of their funding leads in turn to maturity mismatches on balance sheets of the kind that caused the financial crisis. At the same time, shortages of collateral are beginning to emerge in some segments of the financial system especially for the small and medium sized banks.
In addition to identifying these particular strains in the banking sector, our regular economic and monetary analysis has indicated that the intensified financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued.
In these conditions, and faithful to our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term, the ECB’s Governing Council has taken a number of far-reaching decisions.
The Council decided to reduce its key interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1%. In normal financial market conditions, a policy rate reduction is a potent instrument of inflation control and demand support. The rate cut works its way through a long chain of downward adjustments in financial returns. At the end of the process, the yield on large spectrum of securities declines and promotes broad-based policy accommodation.
In the present conditions, this process turns out to be hampered, so that the impact of a rate cut by itself is weakened. Banks limit their lending to other banks and potentially to the broader economy, and they hold on to precautionary balances of cash as self-insurance.
Therefore, the Governing Council last week decided on three other measures, each of which provides additional support in order to bring the necessary monetary policy impulse to the real economy.
The current package should be felt tangibly in the financial sector and the real economy over the coming weeks and months. Of course, it comes against strong headwinds generated by deleveraging.
We established very long-term refinancing operations with a maturity of three years. This duration is a novelty in ECB monetary policy operations.
The extension of central bank credit provision to very long maturities is meant to give banks a longer horizon in their liquidity planning. It helps them to avoid rebalancing the maturities of their assets and liabilities through a downscaling of longer-term lending. Incidentally, we want to make it absolutely clear that in the present conditions where systemic risk is seriously hampering the functioning of the economy, we see no stigma attached to the use of central banking credit provisions: our facilities are there to be used.
Banks will be able to refinance term lending with the Eurosystem and thus preserve their long-term exposures to the real economy. After the first year, banks will have the option to terminate the operation. So they can flexibly adapt to changing liquidity conditions and a normalising market environment.
Our second measure will allow banks to use loans as collateral with the Eurosystem, thereby unfreezing a large portion of bank assets. It should also provide banks with an incentive to abstain from curtailing credit to the economy and to avoid fire-sales of other assets on their balance sheets.
The goal of these measures is to ensure that households and firms – and especially small and medium-sized enterprises – will receive credit as effectively as possible under the current circumstances. Of course, we have to screen the collateral carefully so as to protect our balance sheet.
The third measure we announced last week is to reduce the required reserves ratio from 2% to 1%. This measure frees up liquidity of the banking sector by about 100 billion euro. Along with other measures, this reduction in the reserve requirements should, too, help revive money market activity and lending.
You will notice that I referred repeatedly to small and medium-sized enterprises. The reason for drawing your attention to these businesses is that they are a significant part of our economy, accounting for about 70% of employment in the euro area and 60% of the turnover of all firms. We believe that the measures introduced last Thursday will provide support for this sector and indirectly also support much-needed investment, growth and employment.
Foundations for a stable economic and monetary union
Let me now shift my attention to last week’s European Council summit. For more than 12 years, Europe’s economic and monetary union has been haunted by concerns about national budgets. Within a common currency area during normal times, the fiscal policies of individual countries typically face less pressure from financial markets. It was for this reason that at the very beginning of Europe’s single currency, the Stability and Growth Pact was established to provide a control mechanism for fiscal policy.
Next year, the euro area as a whole will have a government primary budget deficit close to zero. This compares with primary deficits projected at around 5% of GDP in Japan, the UK and the US.
Yet the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact has not been good enough. As the Federal Chancellor of Germany recently remarked, the Pact has been broken 60 times over the past 12 years. So we clearly have work to do to prevent this happening again.
The new set of rules for economic and fiscal surveillance known as the six-pack – which was approved by the European Parliament earlier this year – will certainly strengthen the implementation of the rules. But while these changes were being planned, the entire fiscal cohesion and credibility of the euro area was weakened.
We have now begun the process of re-designing Europe’s fiscal framework on three fronts.
The first lies with the countries concerned: they have to put their policies back on a sound footing. I believe that they are now on the right track and they are right in implementing budgetary consolidation resolutely. The unavoidable short-term contraction may be mitigated by the return of confidence. But in the medium term, sustainable growth can be achieved only by undertaking deep structural reforms that have been procrastinated for too long.
The second pillar of a response to the crisis consists of a re-design of the fiscal governance in the euro area, what I called the fiscal compact. The fiscal compact is a fundamental restatement of the rules to which national budgetary policies ought to be subject so as to gain credibility beyond doubt.
Last week’s summit committed to enshrine these rules in the primary legislation. They will foresee that the annual structural deficit should not exceed 0.5% of nominal GDP. Euro area Member States will implement such a rule in their national legal frameworks at a constitutional level, so that it is possible to avoid excessive deficits before they arise, rather than trying to control them after they have emerged. Prevention is better than cure.
Rules will also foresee an automatic correction mechanism in case of deviation. Moreover, the leaders agreed on a numerical benchmark for annual debt reduction to bring down debt levels. They also agreed to sanctions that will apply automatically to euro area Member States in breach of the 3% reference value for deficits.
The European Court of Justice may be asked to verify the implementation of these rules at national level.
Taken together, I believe that these decisions are capable of making public finances in the euro area credibly robust.
But restoring financial markets’ confidence also requires that investors be reassured that government debt will always be repaid and timely serviced. Greece will remain a unique case, and a credible stabilisation mechanism, a firewall, will be in place and can be activated when needed subject to proper conditionality. The leaders unambiguously agreed to assess the adequacy of the firewall by next March. Its objective is to address the threats to financial stability, and especially the risk of contagion between different sovereign debt markets.
The leaders decided to deploy the leveraging of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at the earliest opportunity. At the same time they agreed that the EFSF’s successor, the European Stability Mechanism, should come into force by July 2012.
It is crucial that the EFSF be fully equipped and be made operational as soon as possible. With this goal in mind, last Thursday, the Governing Council decided that the ECB would stand ready to act with its technical infrastructure and know-how as an agent for the EFSF in carrying out its market operations.
Conclusion
Let me conclude. The decisions of the European Council summit, together with the six-pack approved recently by the European Parliament, are a breakthrough for clear fiscal rules in our monetary union.
However, the crisis has not ended yet. It is now important not to lose momentum and to swiftly implement all those decisions that have been taken to put the euro area economy back on course.
The monetary policy measures taken last week by the ECB’s Governing Council will support the flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area economy.
Ludwig Erhard faced a situation that was much more difficult than what we face today. Still, he was able to look through the challenging present and to work hard to build a future that he never doubted would be brighter. The European policy makers might well be inspired by his style: “Den Strom der Zeit können wir zwar nicht lenken, aber wir werden unser Schiff sicher steuern.”
Thank you very much for your attention.
http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111215.en.html
演辭，歐洲央行行長德拉基，
路德維希艾哈德講座，
2011年12月15日，柏林
女士們，先生們，
我很榮幸能收到邀請提供今年的路德維希艾哈德講座教授漢斯蒂特邁爾。
當我在20世紀 90年代在意大利財政部工作，我蒂特邁爾和教授一起工作的許多機會。我清楚地記得在“馬斯特里赫特條約”以來的二十年的過程中，我們的許多交流。我非常感謝他作為顧問，我們的審計委員會與歐洲央行（ECB）保持密切聯繫。
讓我也表達我的感激之情的Ludwig - Erhard基金會的活動，支持“Soziale Marktwirtschaft”的原則，歐洲各地知名。
路德維希艾哈德在塑造德國戰後恢復遺留的延伸遠遠超出了他自己的國家，遠遠超出了他自己的時代。他的“社會市場經濟”的理念，是有遠見的。 ，甚至舉行有關央行行長珍惜意見，強調價格穩定的重要性：“模具soziale Marktwirtschaft IST ohne eine konsequente Politik DER Preisstabilität - 編者 denkbar。”我認為，今天，我們不能制定這個想法。
路德維希艾哈德還供奉了中央銀行的獨立性原則。當在20世紀 50年代初的德國中央銀行制度的獨立性尚未解決，他認為，作為經濟部長，政府不應該發出指示，向中央銀行。大家都知道，歐洲央行的法規繼承了這一重要原則，中央銀行的獨立性和價格穩定的可信的追求齊頭並進。
目前的情況下仍然要求深深的挑戰交織在許多國家的政治水平和超國家的歐洲領域的經濟，金融和財政問題，。
上週已採取了兩套重要的決定，這是今天我的發言重點。首先，我將詳細闡述了貨幣政策措施，歐洲央行上週四宣布，我們期望從他們那裡的動機。第二，我也想與大家分享上週的歐洲理事會首腦會議的決定，這帶來了一些非常重要的新的元素，我們的經濟和貨幣聯盟的一些看法。
歐元區貨幣政策的決策
為了解釋我們最近的貨幣政策措施，讓我記得，在歐元區經濟對銀行的特殊作用。工程主要是通過銀行信貸在歐元區的企業和家庭的流動。近年來，企業的外部融資約三季度來自該源。
這意味著任何銀行貸款的渠道減值，將有更強的後果比其他經濟體，企業的外部融資時主要是從企業債券市場在歐元區。
在歐元區的銀行最近受到壓力，既至於他們的資本基礎和其資助的條件。
計劃，以加強其資本基礎，是企圖以加強其在金融市場中的地位，但是這不是一個簡單的過程。基本上有三個銀行的選項，以追求提高其資本比率由歐洲銀行管理局的要求：他們可以提高其資本水平，出售資產或減少其向實體經濟提供信貸。
第一個選項是比第二個好很多，和第二個選項是遠遠比第三更好。但是，提高資本水平是昂貴的，在低迷的市場，面臨著來自股東的阻力。出售資產是不太可取，削減信貸向實體經濟更是雪上加霜。因此，公共當局應，以減輕對實體經濟和銀行的影響，應考慮限制股息及專案補償，以加強緩衝區。
銀行也面臨著在金融市場籌集較長期資金的問題。其資金的縮短導致在打開的那種，造成金融危機的資產負債表的期限錯配。與此同時，抵押物的短缺開始出現，尤其是中小型銀行在金融體系的某些環節。
除了識別在銀行業的這些特殊菌株，我們定期經濟和貨幣分析表明，加劇了金融市場的緊張局勢繼續抑制歐元區經濟活動前景仍然受到高度的不確定性和大幅下滑的風險。在這樣的環境中，在歐元區的成本，工資和價格的壓力應該保持謙虛，在政策相關的地平線。與此同時，貨幣擴張的基本步伐仍然疲弱。
在這種情況下，並忠實於我們的任務是保持中期價格穩定，歐洲央行理事會已經採取了一些深遠影響的決定。
理事會決定，以減少其關鍵利率25個基點至1％。在正常的金融市場條件下，降低利率政策是一個有力的手段控制通貨膨脹和需求的支持。降息的方式通過財務回報向下調整的長鏈。在該進程的結束，大範圍的證券的收益率下降，並促進基礎廣泛的寬鬆的貨幣政策。
在目前的條件下，這個過程會受到阻礙，使本身就是一個降息的影響減弱。銀行同業及其他潛在的更廣泛的經濟，限制了他們的貸款和預防的現金餘額為自我保險持有。
因此，理事會上週決定對三個其他措施，其中每個提供額外的支持，以實現必要的貨幣政策向實體經濟的衝動。
當前包應切實感受到，在金融部門和實體經濟在今後幾週和幾個月。當然，對由去槓桿化產生了濃厚的逆風。
我們建立了非常三年到期的長期再融資操作。這一期限是在歐洲央行的貨幣政策操作的新穎性。
央行提供信貸的延伸很長的到期，是為了給銀行不再地平線在其流動性規劃。它可以幫助他們避免重新平衡其資產和負債的到期日，經過一個較長期的貸款比例縮小。順便說一下，我們要絕對清楚地表明，在目前的條件下，系統性風險嚴重阻礙了經濟的運作，我們可以看到連接到中央銀行信貸規定的使用沒有恥辱：要使用我們的設施。
銀行將能夠進行再融資與歐元體系的長期貸款，從而保持其長期暴露到實體經濟。第一年後，銀行將不得不終止操作的選項。因此，他們可以靈活地適應不斷變化的流動性狀況和正常化的市場環境。
我們的第二項措施將允許銀行使用歐元體系的抵押品的貸款，從而解凍銀行資產的很大一部分。它還應提供銀行放棄削減信貸的經濟，並避免其資產負債表上其他資產的消防銷售激勵。
這些措施的目的是要確保美國家庭和企業 - 特別是小型和中小型企業 - 在當前形勢下的信貸將獲得盡可能有效。當然，我們必須仔細屏幕上的抵押品，以保護我們的資產負債表。
我們上週公佈的第三項措施是減少所需的儲備比例從 2％至1％。這項措施釋放了約 100億歐元銀行業的流動性。 ，這在需要的儲備減少，應與其他措施一起，幫助恢復貨幣市場的活動和貸款。
你會注意到我反复提到小型和中小型企業。提請你注意這些企業的理由是，他們是我們經濟的重要組成部分，佔約 70％，在歐元區的就業和所有企業的營業額的60％。我們認為，上週四推出的措施將提供本部門的支持，也間接支持急需的投資，經濟增長和就業。
一個穩定的經濟和貨幣聯盟的基礎
我現在我的注意力轉移到上週的歐洲理事會首腦會議。超過 12年，歐洲經濟和貨幣聯盟一直困擾國家預算的擔憂。在一個共同貨幣區，在正常情況下，個別國家的財政政策通常面對金融市場的壓力較小。正是基於此，一開始就在歐洲單一貨幣的穩定和增長公約“成立的目的是提供一個財政政策的控制機制的原因。
明年，歐元區作為一個整體將有一個政府主要預算赤字接近零。與此相比，在國內生產總值的5％左右預計在日本，英國和美國的主要赤字。
然而，實施的穩定和增長公約“還沒有足夠好。正如德國聯邦總理最近說，該條約已被打破過去 12年的60倍。因此，我們顯然有工作做，以防止再次發生這種情況。
這是由歐洲議會今年早些時候批准 - - 稱為六包的經濟和財政監督的新規則，必將加強實施細則。但是，儘管這些變化正在計劃，整個財政的凝聚力和歐元區的公信力被削弱。
現在，我們已經開始重新設計歐洲的三個方面的財政框架的過程中。
首先在於同有關國家，他們將建立一個健全的政策。我相信，他們現在在正確的軌道，他們是在堅決執行預算鞏固。不可避免的短期收縮可以減輕恢復信心。但在中期，可持續的增長可以達到只有進行深刻的結構性改革已拖延太久。
應對危機的第二大支柱，包括重新設計了在歐元區，我所謂的財政緊湊的財政治理。財政緊湊，是一個根本的規則，國家預算政策應該是主體，以獲得毋庸置疑的公信力重述。
上週的首腦會議上承諾，供奉在這些規則的主要立法。他們預見，每年的結構性赤字不得超過名義國內生產總值的0.5％。歐元區成員國將實施這樣的規則在本國的法律框架在憲法層面，因此，它有可能避免過度赤字，才出現的，而不是試圖控制他們後，他們已經出現。預防勝於治療。
規則也將預見偏差的情況下自動糾錯機制。此外，各國領導人同意上年度減少債務的數值基準，以降低債務水平。他們還同意，將自動適用於歐元區成員國的赤字為 3％的參考價值違反制裁。
歐洲法院可能會被要求確認在國家一級執行這些規則。
兩者合計，我相信，這些決定是可信強勁的歐元區公共財政的。
但是，恢復金融市場的信心，也需要投資者可以放心，政府債務將永遠償還和及時的服務。希臘將仍然是一個獨特的情況下，和一個可靠的穩定機制，防火牆，將在需要時受到適當的條件，可以激活。領導人明確同意評估，明年3月的防火牆是否足夠。其目的是解決金融的穩定，尤其是不同的主權債務市場之間傳染的風險威脅。
領導人決定部署在最早的時機，充分利用歐洲金融穩定基金（EFSF）。同時，他們一致認為，EFSF的繼任者，歐洲穩定機制，應該由2012年7月生效。
這是非常重要的EFSF設備齊全，並盡快投入使用。考慮到這一點的目標，上週四，理事會決定，歐洲央行隨時準備採取行動，其技術基礎設施和技術訣竅作為代理人進行市場運作的EFSF。
結論
最後，我想。歐洲理事會首腦會議的決定，連同歐洲議會最近批准的六塊，是一個明確的財政規則，在我們的貨幣聯盟的突破。
然而，危機尚未結束。現在重要的是不要失去勢頭，並迅速執行放回當然，歐元區經濟已採取的所有這些決定。
貨幣政策措施，由上週的歐洲央行理事會將支持歐元區經濟在向企業和家庭信貸流動。
路德維希艾哈德面臨的情況比我們今天所面臨的的困難得多。儘管如此，他仍然能夠通過富有挑戰性的目前看，努力構築未來，他從來沒有懷疑過會更加美好。歐洲決策者可能由他的風格中得到啟發：“書齋斯特羅姆 DER時代週報 können WIR zwar - 編者 lenken，ABER WIR werden unser希夫sicher steuern。
非常感謝您的關注。
The euro, monetary policy and the design of a fiscal compact
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Ludwig Erhard Lecture,
Berlin, 15 December 2011
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am honoured to have received the invitation from Professor Hans Tietmeyer to deliver this year’s Ludwig Erhard lecture.
When I was working at the Italian Treasury in the 1990s, Professor Tietmeyer and I had many opportunities to work together. I vividly remember many of our exchanges over the course of the two decades since the Maastricht Treaty. And I am very grateful that he remains in close contact with the European Central Bank (ECB) as adviser to our audit committee.
Let me also express my gratitude to the Ludwig-Erhard-Foundation whose activities in support of the principles of “Soziale Marktwirtschaft” are renowned across Europe.
Ludwig Erhard’s legacy in shaping Germany’s post-war recovery stretches far beyond his own country and far beyond his own times. His conception of the social market economy was visionary. And he even held cherished views about central bankers, stressing the importance of price stability: “Die soziale Marktwirtschaft ist ohne eine konsequente Politik der Preisstabilität nicht denkbar.” I think we cannot formulate this idea any better today.
Ludwig Erhard also helped to enshrine the principle of central bank independence. When in the early 1950s the independence of the German central bank system was not yet settled, he as minister of the economy argued that the government should not issue instructions to the central bank. You all know that the statutes of the ECB inherited this important principle and that central bank independence and the credible pursuit of price stability go hand in hand.
Current circumstances remain demanding, with economic, financial and fiscal issues deeply intertwined with challenges at the political level in many countries and in the supra-national European sphere.
Last week two sets of important decisions have been taken, which are going to be the focus of my remarks today. First, I will elaborate on the motivation for the monetary policy measures that the ECB announced last Thursday and what we expect from them. Second, I would also like to share with you some views on last week’s European Council summit’s decisions, which brought some very important new elements to our economic and monetary union.
Monetary policy decisions for the euro area
To explain our recent monetary policy measures, let me recall the particular role of banks in the euro area economy. The flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area works largely through banks. During recent years, about three quarters of firms’ external financing have come from that source.
This means that any impairment in the bank lending channel will have stronger consequences in the euro area than in other economies where firms’ external financing comes largely from corporate bond markets.
Banks in the euro area have recently come under pressure both as regards their capital bases and their funding conditions.
The plan to strengthen their capital bases is an attempt to reinforce their standing in financial markets, but this is not an easy process. There are essentially three options for banks to pursue to raise their capital ratios as demanded by the European Banking Authority: they can raise their capital levels, sell assets or reduce their provision of credit to the real economy.
The first option is much better than the second, and the second option is much better than the third. But raising capital levels is expensive in a depressed market and faces resistance from shareholders. Selling assets is less preferable and curtailing credit to the real economy is even worse. Therefore, public authorities ought to cushion the impact on the real economy and banks should consider restraining dividends and ad hoc compensation to strengthen buffers.
Banks are also facing problems in raising longer-term funding in financial markets. The resulting shortening of their funding leads in turn to maturity mismatches on balance sheets of the kind that caused the financial crisis. At the same time, shortages of collateral are beginning to emerge in some segments of the financial system especially for the small and medium sized banks.
In addition to identifying these particular strains in the banking sector, our regular economic and monetary analysis has indicated that the intensified financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued.
In these conditions, and faithful to our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term, the ECB’s Governing Council has taken a number of far-reaching decisions.
The Council decided to reduce its key interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1%. In normal financial market conditions, a policy rate reduction is a potent instrument of inflation control and demand support. The rate cut works its way through a long chain of downward adjustments in financial returns. At the end of the process, the yield on large spectrum of securities declines and promotes broad-based policy accommodation.
In the present conditions, this process turns out to be hampered, so that the impact of a rate cut by itself is weakened. Banks limit their lending to other banks and potentially to the broader economy, and they hold on to precautionary balances of cash as self-insurance.
Therefore, the Governing Council last week decided on three other measures, each of which provides additional support in order to bring the necessary monetary policy impulse to the real economy.
The current package should be felt tangibly in the financial sector and the real economy over the coming weeks and months. Of course, it comes against strong headwinds generated by deleveraging.
We established very long-term refinancing operations with a maturity of three years. This duration is a novelty in ECB monetary policy operations.
The extension of central bank credit provision to very long maturities is meant to give banks a longer horizon in their liquidity planning. It helps them to avoid rebalancing the maturities of their assets and liabilities through a downscaling of longer-term lending. Incidentally, we want to make it absolutely clear that in the present conditions where systemic risk is seriously hampering the functioning of the economy, we see no stigma attached to the use of central banking credit provisions: our facilities are there to be used.
Banks will be able to refinance term lending with the Eurosystem and thus preserve their long-term exposures to the real economy. After the first year, banks will have the option to terminate the operation. So they can flexibly adapt to changing liquidity conditions and a normalising market environment.
Our second measure will allow banks to use loans as collateral with the Eurosystem, thereby unfreezing a large portion of bank assets. It should also provide banks with an incentive to abstain from curtailing credit to the economy and to avoid fire-sales of other assets on their balance sheets.
The goal of these measures is to ensure that households and firms – and especially small and medium-sized enterprises – will receive credit as effectively as possible under the current circumstances. Of course, we have to screen the collateral carefully so as to protect our balance sheet.
The third measure we announced last week is to reduce the required reserves ratio from 2% to 1%. This measure frees up liquidity of the banking sector by about 100 billion euro. Along with other measures, this reduction in the reserve requirements should, too, help revive money market activity and lending.
You will notice that I referred repeatedly to small and medium-sized enterprises. The reason for drawing your attention to these businesses is that they are a significant part of our economy, accounting for about 70% of employment in the euro area and 60% of the turnover of all firms. We believe that the measures introduced last Thursday will provide support for this sector and indirectly also support much-needed investment, growth and employment.
Foundations for a stable economic and monetary union
Let me now shift my attention to last week’s European Council summit. For more than 12 years, Europe’s economic and monetary union has been haunted by concerns about national budgets. Within a common currency area during normal times, the fiscal policies of individual countries typically face less pressure from financial markets. It was for this reason that at the very beginning of Europe’s single currency, the Stability and Growth Pact was established to provide a control mechanism for fiscal policy.
Next year, the euro area as a whole will have a government primary budget deficit close to zero. This compares with primary deficits projected at around 5% of GDP in Japan, the UK and the US.
Yet the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact has not been good enough. As the Federal Chancellor of Germany recently remarked, the Pact has been broken 60 times over the past 12 years. So we clearly have work to do to prevent this happening again.
The new set of rules for economic and fiscal surveillance known as the six-pack – which was approved by the European Parliament earlier this year – will certainly strengthen the implementation of the rules. But while these changes were being planned, the entire fiscal cohesion and credibility of the euro area was weakened.
We have now begun the process of re-designing Europe’s fiscal framework on three fronts.
The first lies with the countries concerned: they have to put their policies back on a sound footing. I believe that they are now on the right track and they are right in implementing budgetary consolidation resolutely. The unavoidable short-term contraction may be mitigated by the return of confidence. But in the medium term, sustainable growth can be achieved only by undertaking deep structural reforms that have been procrastinated for too long.
The second pillar of a response to the crisis consists of a re-design of the fiscal governance in the euro area, what I called the fiscal compact. The fiscal compact is a fundamental restatement of the rules to which national budgetary policies ought to be subject so as to gain credibility beyond doubt.
Last week’s summit committed to enshrine these rules in the primary legislation. They will foresee that the annual structural deficit should not exceed 0.5% of nominal GDP. Euro area Member States will implement such a rule in their national legal frameworks at a constitutional level, so that it is possible to avoid excessive deficits before they arise, rather than trying to control them after they have emerged. Prevention is better than cure.
Rules will also foresee an automatic correction mechanism in case of deviation. Moreover, the leaders agreed on a numerical benchmark for annual debt reduction to bring down debt levels. They also agreed to sanctions that will apply automatically to euro area Member States in breach of the 3% reference value for deficits.
The European Court of Justice may be asked to verify the implementation of these rules at national level.
Taken together, I believe that these decisions are capable of making public finances in the euro area credibly robust.
But restoring financial markets’ confidence also requires that investors be reassured that government debt will always be repaid and timely serviced. Greece will remain a unique case, and a credible stabilisation mechanism, a firewall, will be in place and can be activated when needed subject to proper conditionality. The leaders unambiguously agreed to assess the adequacy of the firewall by next March. Its objective is to address the threats to financial stability, and especially the risk of contagion between different sovereign debt markets.
The leaders decided to deploy the leveraging of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at the earliest opportunity. At the same time they agreed that the EFSF’s successor, the European Stability Mechanism, should come into force by July 2012.
It is crucial that the EFSF be fully equipped and be made operational as soon as possible. With this goal in mind, last Thursday, the Governing Council decided that the ECB would stand ready to act with its technical infrastructure and know-how as an agent for the EFSF in carrying out its market operations.
Conclusion
Let me conclude. The decisions of the European Council summit, together with the six-pack approved recently by the European Parliament, are a breakthrough for clear fiscal rules in our monetary union.
However, the crisis has not ended yet. It is now important not to lose momentum and to swiftly implement all those decisions that have been taken to put the euro area economy back on course.
The monetary policy measures taken last week by the ECB’s Governing Council will support the flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area economy.
Ludwig Erhard faced a situation that was much more difficult than what we face today. Still, he was able to look through the challenging present and to work hard to build a future that he never doubted would be brighter. The European policy makers might well be inspired by his style: “Den Strom der Zeit können wir zwar nicht lenken, aber wir werden unser Schiff sicher steuern.”
Thank you very much for your attention.
http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111215.en.html
惠譽︰下調高盛等6家跨國銀行評級
惠譽下調6家跨國銀行的評級，理由是這些銀行的業務模式對金融市場面臨的經濟和監管挑戰尤為敏感。同時表示，美國政府對銀行業的支持力度正在下降。
惠譽將美國銀行和高盛集團的長期發行人違約評級從「A+」下調至「A」。並將法國巴黎銀行的評級從「AA-」下調至「A+」。將巴克萊集團和瑞士信貸集團的評級從「AA-」下調2級至「A」。將德意志銀行的評級從「AA-」下調至「A+」。
惠譽同時下調上述6家銀行的個別實力評級，並對摩根士丹利和法國興業銀行採取相同舉措。惠譽表示，個別實力評級下調，對上述6家銀行發行人違約評級的影響取決於它們的支持評級底線。不過，由於這幾家銀行在充實資本金和增加流動性緩沖以抵御市場挑戰方面取得顯著進步，因此評級的下調僅限於1至2級。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=fov&aid=fov_20111216085321
惠譽將美國銀行和高盛集團的長期發行人違約評級從「A+」下調至「A」。並將法國巴黎銀行的評級從「AA-」下調至「A+」。將巴克萊集團和瑞士信貸集團的評級從「AA-」下調2級至「A」。將德意志銀行的評級從「AA-」下調至「A+」。
惠譽同時下調上述6家銀行的個別實力評級，並對摩根士丹利和法國興業銀行採取相同舉措。惠譽表示，個別實力評級下調，對上述6家銀行發行人違約評級的影響取決於它們的支持評級底線。不過，由於這幾家銀行在充實資本金和增加流動性緩沖以抵御市場挑戰方面取得顯著進步，因此評級的下調僅限於1至2級。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=fov&aid=fov_20111216085321
美國經濟數據
..美國費城聯邦儲備銀行公布，12月製造業指數為10.3，高過市場預期的5，亦高過11月的3.6，創今年4月以來最高。
..美國中西部製造業活動加速擴張。十二月費城製造業指數，由上月3.6，回升至10.3，是市場預期的一倍，亦自四月以來最高水平。
..美國十一月工業生產，下跌0.2%，是七個月來首次回落。其中工廠生產下跌0.4%，主要受到汽車及零件生產下跌所拖累。
期內，產能使用率為77.8%，市場預期為77.9%。
紐約州製造業指數大幅反彈；紐約聯邦儲備銀行的帝國製造業指數，由十一月的0.61，大幅攀升至本月9.53，是市場預期的三倍多，亦是自五月以來最高，反映區內的製造業活動快速擴張。
..美國財政部公布，美國10月整體資本淨流出488億美元，9月經修定為淨流入650億美元。
截至10月，中國持有1萬1341億美元美國國債，較9月減少142億美元。
..美國十一月生產物價指數上升0.3%，升幅略多於預期，主要由食品及汽油所帶動，若撇除這兩項較波動的因素，上月生產物價指數上升0.1%，升幅少過預期。
..美國勞工部公布，上星期首次申領失業救濟人數減少1萬9000人，至36萬6000人，創逾3年半低位，市場原先預期增加5000人。
四周平均人數減少6500人至38萬7750人，創近3年半最低。
持續申領失業救濟人數增加4000人，至360萬3000人，升幅少過市場預期的3萬1000人。
..美國經常帳赤字回落至近兩年低位；第三季經常帳赤字，收窄至1103億美元，下跌11.6%，是零九年第四季以來最低。
..美國中西部製造業活動加速擴張。十二月費城製造業指數，由上月3.6，回升至10.3，是市場預期的一倍，亦自四月以來最高水平。
..美國十一月工業生產，下跌0.2%，是七個月來首次回落。其中工廠生產下跌0.4%，主要受到汽車及零件生產下跌所拖累。
期內，產能使用率為77.8%，市場預期為77.9%。
紐約州製造業指數大幅反彈；紐約聯邦儲備銀行的帝國製造業指數，由十一月的0.61，大幅攀升至本月9.53，是市場預期的三倍多，亦是自五月以來最高，反映區內的製造業活動快速擴張。
..美國財政部公布，美國10月整體資本淨流出488億美元，9月經修定為淨流入650億美元。
截至10月，中國持有1萬1341億美元美國國債，較9月減少142億美元。
..美國十一月生產物價指數上升0.3%，升幅略多於預期，主要由食品及汽油所帶動，若撇除這兩項較波動的因素，上月生產物價指數上升0.1%，升幅少過預期。
..美國勞工部公布，上星期首次申領失業救濟人數減少1萬9000人，至36萬6000人，創逾3年半低位，市場原先預期增加5000人。
四周平均人數減少6500人至38萬7750人，創近3年半最低。
持續申領失業救濟人數增加4000人，至360萬3000人，升幅少過市場預期的3萬1000人。
..美國經常帳赤字回落至近兩年低位；第三季經常帳赤字，收窄至1103億美元，下跌11.6%，是零九年第四季以來最低。
2011年12月15日星期四
穆迪調降烏克蘭債信展望
（法新社基輔15日電） 穆迪信評公司（Moody's）有鑑於烏克蘭的流動性壓力增加，且在前總理提摩申科（Yulia Tymoshenko）下獄後的政治情勢不確定，今天將烏克蘭債信展望由穩定調降為負向。
穆迪是對烏克蘭本國貨幣公債和外幣公債調降展望，目前國際貨幣基金對該國的貸款已止付。
穆迪說：「由於烏國政府的資金餘額相當有限，可能難以因應來年的預算資金和債券贖回。」
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/穆迪調降烏克蘭債信展望-105002274.html
穆迪是對烏克蘭本國貨幣公債和外幣公債調降展望，目前國際貨幣基金對該國的貸款已止付。
穆迪說：「由於烏國政府的資金餘額相當有限，可能難以因應來年的預算資金和債券贖回。」
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/穆迪調降烏克蘭債信展望-105002274.html
惠譽降５間歐洲大銀行評級，料緊縮措施帶來負面影響
評級機構惠譽表示，考慮到對歐債危機解決的疑憂，以及歐洲政府緊縮措施為銀行造成的負面影響，因此，將歐洲５家大型銀行評級下調１級，受影響的銀行包括法國農業信貸集團，還有丹麥、荷蘭及芬蘭的銀行，其中１家銀行的評級展望為負面，其餘為穩定。
http://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/news/home_editor_choice_detail.php?newsid=ETN211215523
http://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/news/home_editor_choice_detail.php?newsid=ETN211215523
印度財長︰對財政赤字和經常項目赤字感到擔憂
印度財長Pranab Mukherjee表示，對財政赤字和經常項目赤字感到擔憂；又稱，通脹水平處於難以接受的高位，而應對通脹的財政和貨幣措施越來越有限。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111215130344
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111215130344
2011年12月14日星期三
德央行準備有條件向IMF提供新貸款
德國央行行長魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)表示，該行準備向國際貨幣基金組織(簡稱IMF)發放新貸款，以增強其抗擊危機的能力，但是這些資金必須以用途及各國的貢獻等條件為前提。
魏德曼在央行舉辦的晚宴上向記者表示，願意向IMF貢獻最多450億歐元，但資金不能用於為歐元區受困國國債融資等特殊目的，還稱旨在將IMF貸款能力提高至多2,000億歐元融資活動也不能僅限於歐元區範圍內，不過他未具體說明還有哪些國家應該參與。
他並稱如果上述條件無法滿足，德國央行就不能同意出資承諾。但他表示，相信各國可以就分擔貸款負擔達成共識。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111214195409
魏德曼在央行舉辦的晚宴上向記者表示，願意向IMF貢獻最多450億歐元，但資金不能用於為歐元區受困國國債融資等特殊目的，還稱旨在將IMF貸款能力提高至多2,000億歐元融資活動也不能僅限於歐元區範圍內，不過他未具體說明還有哪些國家應該參與。
他並稱如果上述條件無法滿足，德國央行就不能同意出資承諾。但他表示，相信各國可以就分擔貸款負擔達成共識。
http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111214195409
美联储联邦公开市场委员会声明
自聯邦公開市場委員會在11月會見的信息表明經濟溫和擴張，儘管一些在全球經濟增長明顯放緩，。雖然指標顯示整體勞動市場情況有所改善，失業率持續上升。家庭支出繼續推進，但企業固定資產投資增加迅速，住房部門仍然低迷。因為在今年早些時候的通貨膨脹率已經放緩，長期通脹預期保持穩定。
其法定任務，委員會旨在促進最大就業和價格穩定。委員會繼續預計在未來幾個季度的經濟增長穩健的步伐，因此預計失業率將朝水平下降，才逐漸委員會法官要符合其雙重任務。在全球金融市場的菌株繼續對經濟前景顯著的下行風險。該委員會還預計，在未來幾個季度通脹將解決，或低於一致的水平與委員會的雙重任務。然而，委員會將繼續密切關注通脹和通脹預期的演變。
為了支持一個更強大的經濟復甦，並幫助確保通脹的雙重任務相一致的水平，隨著時間的推移，是，委員會今天決定繼續其計劃，以延長其持有的在9月份宣布證券的平均到期日。該委員會是保持現行政策的再投資，其持有的機構債和機構抵押貸款支持證券機構抵押貸款支持證券的本金付款超過到期的國庫券拍賣滾動。委員會將定期檢討其持有證券的規模和組成，並準備適當地調整這些控股。
委員會還決定繼續將聯邦基金利率在0至1 / 4％的目標範圍，目前預計，經濟條件 - 包括資源利用率和中期來看，通脹的放緩前景低利率 - 可能保證至少到2013年年中聯邦基金利率非常低的水平。
委員會將繼續收到的信息，以評估經濟前景，並準備聘請的工具，以促進價格穩定的情況下更強的經濟復甦。
FOMC貨幣政策行動的成員有：主席柏南奇，副主席威廉C ·達德利，伊麗莎白答公爵理查德W ·費舍爾的Narayana Kocherlakota查理一世普洛瑟;薩拉布魯姆拉斯金;丹尼爾 K. Tarullo和Janet L.耶倫。投票反對行動查爾斯 L.埃文斯，誰在這個時候支持額外的寬鬆的貨幣政策。
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.
The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20111213a.htm
其法定任務，委員會旨在促進最大就業和價格穩定。委員會繼續預計在未來幾個季度的經濟增長穩健的步伐，因此預計失業率將朝水平下降，才逐漸委員會法官要符合其雙重任務。在全球金融市場的菌株繼續對經濟前景顯著的下行風險。該委員會還預計，在未來幾個季度通脹將解決，或低於一致的水平與委員會的雙重任務。然而，委員會將繼續密切關注通脹和通脹預期的演變。
為了支持一個更強大的經濟復甦，並幫助確保通脹的雙重任務相一致的水平，隨著時間的推移，是，委員會今天決定繼續其計劃，以延長其持有的在9月份宣布證券的平均到期日。該委員會是保持現行政策的再投資，其持有的機構債和機構抵押貸款支持證券機構抵押貸款支持證券的本金付款超過到期的國庫券拍賣滾動。委員會將定期檢討其持有證券的規模和組成，並準備適當地調整這些控股。
委員會還決定繼續將聯邦基金利率在0至1 / 4％的目標範圍，目前預計，經濟條件 - 包括資源利用率和中期來看，通脹的放緩前景低利率 - 可能保證至少到2013年年中聯邦基金利率非常低的水平。
委員會將繼續收到的信息，以評估經濟前景，並準備聘請的工具，以促進價格穩定的情況下更強的經濟復甦。
FOMC貨幣政策行動的成員有：主席柏南奇，副主席威廉C ·達德利，伊麗莎白答公爵理查德W ·費舍爾的Narayana Kocherlakota查理一世普洛瑟;薩拉布魯姆拉斯金;丹尼爾 K. Tarullo和Janet L.耶倫。投票反對行動查爾斯 L.埃文斯，誰在這個時候支持額外的寬鬆的貨幣政策。
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.
The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20111213a.htm
希腊与私人投资者就国债减记50%计划仍存在分歧
媒体周二(12月13日)表示，希腊此前与私人部门达成的减记国债50%的计划仍存在问题，这为遏制该国的债务危机增加了困难。
此前，希腊政府提出债券置换计划，即投资者用旧国债换新国债的价值为35%，利率为4-5%，同时向投资者支付面值15%的现金，置换规模为300亿欧元。
国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)提议，希腊新国债面值为旧国债的一半，票面利率为8%，同时要300亿欧元的新国债本金担保。担保资金可以来自欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)等其他机构。实现这一计划需要90%的希腊国债持有者参与国债减记计划。
消息人士称，持有大量希腊国债的中国基金不愿参与减记计划，因为这些基金为国有企业，应受到与欧洲央行(ECB)同样的待遇。因欧洲央行在希腊国债到期时连本带利获得全额偿付，因此一些对冲基金拒绝参与减记谈判。
希腊政府预计，如果私营部门参与率达到要求，该国明年将节省51亿欧元利息支出。但是，如果参与率不足90%，但超过75%，希腊和欧元区将考虑采取"联合行动条款"，强制所有债权人减记。
以上資料copy至http://roll.sohu.com/20111214/n328912718.shtml
此前，希腊政府提出债券置换计划，即投资者用旧国债换新国债的价值为35%，利率为4-5%，同时向投资者支付面值15%的现金，置换规模为300亿欧元。
国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)提议，希腊新国债面值为旧国债的一半，票面利率为8%，同时要300亿欧元的新国债本金担保。担保资金可以来自欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)等其他机构。实现这一计划需要90%的希腊国债持有者参与国债减记计划。
消息人士称，持有大量希腊国债的中国基金不愿参与减记计划，因为这些基金为国有企业，应受到与欧洲央行(ECB)同样的待遇。因欧洲央行在希腊国债到期时连本带利获得全额偿付，因此一些对冲基金拒绝参与减记谈判。
希腊政府预计，如果私营部门参与率达到要求，该国明年将节省51亿欧元利息支出。但是，如果参与率不足90%，但超过75%，希腊和欧元区将考虑采取"联合行动条款"，强制所有债权人减记。
以上資料copy至http://roll.sohu.com/20111214/n328912718.shtml
英国11月CPI年率增速如预期放缓
英国国家统计局(ONS)周二(12月13日)公布的数据显示，英国11月消费者物价指数(CPI)增幅符合预期，年率增速较前一个月有所放缓。
数据显示，英国11月消费者物价指数年率上升4.8%，预期上升4.8%，前值上升5.0%；月率上升0.2%，预期上升0.2%，前值上升0.1%。
与此同时，英国11月零售物价指数年率上升5.2%，预期上升5.1%，前值上升5.4%；月率上升0.2%，预期上升0.2%。
此外，英国11月核心消费者物价指数年率上升3.2%；月率上升0.1%。
英国统计局表示，受蔬菜收成良好影响，10月至11月期间，食品价格涨幅大幅放缓。同时，燃料以及服装价格增幅亦放缓，但酒精价格增幅创年内新高。
英国央行(BOE)官员预计明年通胀将急剧下滑至2%的目标水平，并暗示欧债风险可能会促使该央行在二月份增加刺激措施规模。经合组织(OECD)称英国经济可能已处于衰退途中。
数据显示，英国11月消费者物价指数年率上升4.8%，预期上升4.8%，前值上升5.0%；月率上升0.2%，预期上升0.2%，前值上升0.1%。
与此同时，英国11月零售物价指数年率上升5.2%，预期上升5.1%，前值上升5.4%；月率上升0.2%，预期上升0.2%。
此外，英国11月核心消费者物价指数年率上升3.2%；月率上升0.1%。
英国统计局表示，受蔬菜收成良好影响，10月至11月期间，食品价格涨幅大幅放缓。同时，燃料以及服装价格增幅亦放缓，但酒精价格增幅创年内新高。
英国央行(BOE)官员预计明年通胀将急剧下滑至2%的目标水平，并暗示欧债风险可能会促使该央行在二月份增加刺激措施规模。经合组织(OECD)称英国经济可能已处于衰退途中。
2011年12月13日星期二
惠譽表示美國經濟短期內復甦仍乏力
惠譽國際表示，短期內美國經濟復甦依舊無力，主要由於樓市疲弱和緊縮財政政策，惠譽估計美國的緊縮政策相當於國內生產總值的1%，但惠譽預計明年下半年後美國經濟增長動能加強。
以上資料copy至http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111213002214
歐盟解決危機能力存疑
美股追隨歐洲股市大幅下挫，市場對目的在於解決歐元區金融危機的歐盟條約力度存疑，股價受壓。道瓊斯指數收市下跌162.87，報12,021.39。標普500指數跌18.72，收報1.236.47，納斯達克指數收報2,612.26，跌34.59。
以上資料copy至http://money18.on.cc/finnews/news_breaking_content.html?type=1&cat=exp&aid=exp_20111213050949
2011年12月9日星期五
美国各类经济指标总览--2011/12/9
美国商务部周五公布,10月贸易逆差为434.7亿美元(市场预估为逆差435亿),9月修正後为逆差441.7亿美元(前值为逆差431.1亿);美国10月贸易逆差缩窄至2010年12月以来最小;美国10月对华贸易逆差为280.7亿美元,9月为逆差280.6亿美元; 美国10月出口减少0.8%,进口减少1.0%;美国10月从中国进口额达至378亿美元,创纪录高位
当前值 前次值
失业率(%) 8.6(11月) 9.0(10月修正值)
非农业就业岗位(万) 增加12(11月) 增加10(10月修正值)
平均时薪(%) -0.1(11月) +0.3(10月修正值)
消费者物价指数(CPI)(%) -0.1(10月) +0.3(9月)
不包括食品和能源CPI(%) +0.1(10月) +0.1(9月)
实质所得(%) +0.3(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
生产者物价指数(PPI)(%) -0.3(10月) +0.8(9月)
不包括食品和能源PPI(%) 持平(10月) +0.2(9月)
国内生产总值(GDP)(%) +2.0 +1.3
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
GDP平减指数(%) +2.5 +2.6
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
零售销售(%) +0.5(10月) +1.1(9月修正值)
国际贸易收支(亿美元) 逆差434.7(10月) 逆差431.1(9月)
雇佣成本(%) +0.7(第二季) +0.6(第一季)
工业生产(%) +0.7(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
产能利用率(%) 77.8(10月) 77.3(9月修正值)
初请失业金人数(万人) 38.1 40.4
(12月3日当周) (11月26日当周修正值)
联邦预算(亿美元) 赤字984.7(10月) 赤字645.7(9月)
领先指标(%) +0.9(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人所得(%) +0.4(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人消费支出(PCE)物价(%) -0.1(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
消费者信贷(亿美元) 增加76.5(10月) 增加68.8(9月修正值)
企业库存(%) 持平(9月) +0.4(8月修正值)
建筑支出(%) +0.8(10月) +0.2(9月)
消费者信心 56.0(11月) 40.9(10月修正值)
房屋开工(万户) 62.8(10月) 63(9月修正值)
建筑许可(万户) 65.3(10月) 58.9(9月修正值)
成屋销售(万户) 497(10月) 490(9月修正值)
新屋销售(万户) 30.7(10月) 30.3(9月修正值)
工厂订单(%) -0.4(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
耐久财(耐用品)订单(%) -0.5(10月修正值) -1.4(9月修正值)
供应管理协会非制造业指数 52.0(11月) 52.9(10月)
供应管理协会制造业指数 52.7(11月) 50.8(10月)
趸售(批发)库存(%) +1.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
进口物价(%) -0.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
出口物价(%) -2.1(10月) +0.4%(9月修正值)
单位劳工成本(%) -2.5 +2.8
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
非农业生产率(%) +2.3 -0.1
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
经常账(亿美元) 赤字1,180 赤字1,195.9
(第二季初值) (第一季修正值)
当前值 前次值
失业率(%) 8.6(11月) 9.0(10月修正值)
非农业就业岗位(万) 增加12(11月) 增加10(10月修正值)
平均时薪(%) -0.1(11月) +0.3(10月修正值)
消费者物价指数(CPI)(%) -0.1(10月) +0.3(9月)
不包括食品和能源CPI(%) +0.1(10月) +0.1(9月)
实质所得(%) +0.3(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
生产者物价指数(PPI)(%) -0.3(10月) +0.8(9月)
不包括食品和能源PPI(%) 持平(10月) +0.2(9月)
国内生产总值(GDP)(%) +2.0 +1.3
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
GDP平减指数(%) +2.5 +2.6
(第三季修正值) (第二季终值)
零售销售(%) +0.5(10月) +1.1(9月修正值)
国际贸易收支(亿美元) 逆差434.7(10月) 逆差431.1(9月)
雇佣成本(%) +0.7(第二季) +0.6(第一季)
工业生产(%) +0.7(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
产能利用率(%) 77.8(10月) 77.3(9月修正值)
初请失业金人数(万人) 38.1 40.4
(12月3日当周) (11月26日当周修正值)
联邦预算(亿美元) 赤字984.7(10月) 赤字645.7(9月)
领先指标(%) +0.9(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人所得(%) +0.4(10月) +0.1(9月修正值)
个人消费支出(PCE)物价(%) -0.1(10月) +0.2(9月修正值)
消费者信贷(亿美元) 增加76.5(10月) 增加68.8(9月修正值)
企业库存(%) 持平(9月) +0.4(8月修正值)
建筑支出(%) +0.8(10月) +0.2(9月)
消费者信心 56.0(11月) 40.9(10月修正值)
房屋开工(万户) 62.8(10月) 63(9月修正值)
建筑许可(万户) 65.3(10月) 58.9(9月修正值)
成屋销售(万户) 497(10月) 490(9月修正值)
新屋销售(万户) 30.7(10月) 30.3(9月修正值)
工厂订单(%) -0.4(10月) -0.1(9月修正值)
耐久财(耐用品)订单(%) -0.5(10月修正值) -1.4(9月修正值)
供应管理协会非制造业指数 52.0(11月) 52.9(10月)
供应管理协会制造业指数 52.7(11月) 50.8(10月)
趸售(批发)库存(%) +1.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
进口物价(%) -0.6(10月) 持平(9月修正值)
出口物价(%) -2.1(10月) +0.4%(9月修正值)
单位劳工成本(%) -2.5 +2.8
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
非农业生产率(%) +2.3 -0.1
(第三季修正值) (第二季修正值)
经常账(亿美元) 赤字1,180 赤字1,195.9
(第二季初值) (第一季修正值)
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